Saturday, July 30, 2011

Top MLB HR hitters if the ball parks were all the same dimensions

I always found that all of the MLB ball parks are different sizes and dimensions was a little strange. I understand that this introduces some unpredictability in the game which gives it character. But to me sport should be played in a defined area that is the same for all players in that league. Sports like the NFL, NBA, NHL are all played on the same size field all over the United States. Why should baseball be different? I would love it if a reader could tell me the answer of the history of how this came to be. If you have read this blog you may realize that I am very interested (some would say obsessed) in sports and sports statistics. A baseball stat that gets a lot of attention is the HR leader table. Often considered as one of the most prestigious of titles the HR leader is considered synonymous with power and hitting ability.  The question I have is though how can you look at the HR leader board and say that the guy at the top is truly the HR king?  Maybe he played in a ball park where it was easier to hit HRs? 
To illustrate my point lets look at 2 ball parks :  Comerica Park in Detroit and the new Yankee Stadium in New York.

                                        HRs in 2011     avg HRs per game
Comerica Park                        88                           1.66
Yankee Stadium                     130                          2.32

Here we can clearly see that a lot more HRs are hit at Yankee Stadium then Comerica.  Therefore you would expect that Tigers players would hit less HRs since they play half of their games there.

I fantastic website that I refer to often is the Hit Tracker website founded by Greg Rybarczyk (  The information on this site is amazing and if you are at all interested in stats check it out.  What they have done is calculate the true distance of HRs, that is the distance of the hit based on where it landed, the speed off the bat etc if there were no physical structure within the ball park to stop it.  This true distance calculation is basically a true indication of how far the ball would have been hit if all ball parks were built the same.

After studying this website I found that this information could be used to calculate who the true HR champ would be if everyone played in the same sized ball park.  If you go to the HR tacker website you can see that the true HR distance ranges from 323-486 ft.  But a 323 ft HR by Sam Fuld (Rays) at Fenway down the right field line near Pesky Pole would not be a HR down the same right field line at Comerica Park (which would be about 340). Firstly lets look at the current HR (non-adjusted leader list):

Bautista, Jose (Blue Jays) 31
Granderson, Curtis (Yankees) 28
Teixeira, Mark (Yankees) 28
Konerko, Paul (White Sox) 24
Cabrera, Miguel (Tigers) 22
Cruz, Nelson (Rangers) 22
Reynolds, Mark (Orioles) 21
Beltre, Adrian (Rangers) 20
Ortiz, David (Red Sox) 20
Quentin, Carlos (White Sox) 20

Next let's look at the list if it is adjusted to the the number of HRs that are over the true HR distance of 400 ft (according to my calculations based in the data from the HR tracker website, BTW I know this is a huge hit but started with this as an exercise).

HR HR>400ft adj
Cruz, Nelson (Rangers) 22 17
Reynolds, Mark (Orioles) 21 16
Bautista, Jose (Blue Jays) 31 14
Lind, Adam (Blue Jays) 19 13
Beltre, Adrian (Rangers) 20 13
Quentin, Carlos (White Sox) 20 10
Ortiz, David (Red Sox) 20 10
Granderson, Curtis (Yankees) 28 10
Ellsbury, Jacoby (Red Sox) 17 10

Quite a surprising result right?  Here we can clearly see that Yankees players (Teixeira, Granderson) are benefiting from playing in Yankee Stadium more often.

Any questions and comments are welcome!

Thursday, July 28, 2011

MLB series coming up this weekend - Fantasy Baseball implications

Angels v Tigers at Comerica Park

Howie Kendrink (Angels, 2B, yahoo rank 117) - career at Comerica Park : 52 AB, 0.135 BA
Miguel Cabrera (Tigers, 1B, yahoo rank 17) - 2011 vs Angels : 10 AB, 0.100 BA
Victor Martinez (Tigers, DH, yahoo rank 116) - 2011 vs Angels : 11 AB, 0.091 BA

Yankees v Orioles at Yankee Stadium

Russell Martin (Yankees, C, yahoo rank 322) - career v Orioles : 23 AB, 0.391 BA
Derek Jeter (Yankees, SS, yahoo rank 199) - 2011 v Orioles :  33 AB, 0.375 BA
Brett Gardner (Yankees, OF, yahoo rank 87) - 2011 v Orioles : 27 AB, 0.185 BA
Nick Swisher (yankees, OF, yahoo rank 139) - 2011 v Orioles : 21 AB, 0.143 BA

Royals v Indians at Progressive Field

Alex Gordon (Royals, yahoo rank 46) - 2011 v Indians : 35 AB, 0.200 BA, 2011 at Progressive : 11 AB, 0.091 BA
Jack Hannahan (Indians, 3B, yahoo rank 911) - 2011 v Royals : 30 AB, 0.367 BA

Mets v Nationals at Nationals Field

Josh Thole (Mets, C, yahoo rank 982) - career at Nationals Park : 18 AB, 0.444 BA, 2011 at Nationals Park : 10 AB, 0.400 BA
Jason Bay (Mets, OF, yahoo rank 423) - 2011 vs Nationals : 18 AB, 0.389 BA
Wilson Ramos (Nationals, C, yahoo rank 477) - career v Mets: 27 AB, 0.444 BA, 2011 v Mets : 14 AB, 0.500 BA
Danny Espinosa (Nationals, 2B, yahoo rank 113) - career v Mets : 50 AB, 0.180 BA, 2011 v Mets : 26 AB, 0.154 BA

Pirates v Phillies at Citizens Bank Park

Neil Walker (Pirates, 2B, yahoo rank 95) - career vs Phillies 17 AB, 0.176 BA, 2011 vs Phillies 10 AB, 0.100 BA
Andrew McCutchen (Pirates, OF, yahoo rank 37) - 2011 vs Phillies 12 AB, 0.500 BA
Garrett Jones (Pirates, OF, yahoo rank 387) - career at Citizens Bank Park 19 AB, 0.421 BA
Ryan Howard (Phillies, 1B, yahoo rank 64) - career vs Pirates 136 AB, 0.201 BA, 2011 vs Pirates 12 AB, 0.167 BA
Shane Victorino (Phillies, OF, yahoo rank 78) - 2011 vs Pirates 14 AB, 0.214 BA

Friday, July 22, 2011

Upcoming MLB series this weekend - Fantasy baseball implications

I have picked some interesting stats that could have fantasy implications this week. Want to know how your fanatsy players matchup this week? Send me a message and I will check up the stats for you!

Astros v Cubs at Chicago

Jeff Keppinger (Astros, 2B, yahoo rank 719) - 2011 at Wrigley Field (14 AB, 0.429 BA)
Carlos Lee (Astros, OF, yahoo rank 179) - 2011 at Wrigley Field (13 AB, 0.417 BA)
Michael Bourn (Astros, OF, yahoo rank 32) - 2011 at Wrigley Field (15 AB, 0.400 BA)
Hunter Pence (Astros, OF, yahoo rank 35) - 2011 at Wrigley Field (13 AB, 0.538 BA)

Mariners v Red Sox at Boston

Adrian Gonzalez (Red Sox, 1B) - 2011 at Fenway: 180 AB, 0.383 BA
Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox 2B) - 2011 vs Mariners: 12 AB, 0.167 BA, career vs Mariners: 110 AB, 0.209 BA
Kevin Youkilis (Red Sox, 3B) - 2011 at Fenway: 149 AB, 0.383 BA

Athletics v Yankees at New York
Robinson Cano (Yankees, 2B) - 2011 vs Athletics (11 AB, 0.364 BA)
Brett Gardner (Yankees, OF, yahoo rank 84) - career vs Athletics (61 AB, 0.180 BA), 2011 vs Athletics (7 AB, 0.143 BA)
Curtis Granderson (Yankees, OF, yahoo rank 4) - 2011 vs Athletics (14 AB, 0.214 BA)

Carlos Pena (Cubs, 1B, yahoo rank 150) - career vs Astros (27 AB, 0.111 BA), career at Wrigley Field (153 AB, 0.222 BA)
Starlin Castro (Cubs, SS, yahoo rank 84) - 2011 vs Astros (28 AB, 0.393 BA)

Angels v Orioles at Baltimore
Eric Aybar (Angels, SS, yahoo rank 92) - career vs Orioles (89 AB, 0.202 BA)

Matt Weiters (Orioles, C, yahoo rank 218) - career vs Angels (38 AB, 0.393 BA)

White Sox v Indians

Gordon Beckham (White Sox, 2B, yahoo rank 347) - Career vs at Progressive Field (55 AB, 0.400 BA)
Alexei Ramirez (White Sox, SS, yahoo rank 139) - 2011 at Progessive Field (13 AB, 0.154 BA)

Tigers v Twins at Minnesota
Victor Martinez (Tigers, DH, yahoo rank 109) : 2011 vs Twins (26 AB, 0.462 BA), 2011 at Target Field (13 AB, 0.615 BA), career at Target Field (26 AB, 0.423 BA)
Jhonny Peralta (Tigers, SS, yahoo rank 68) : career vs Twins (39 AB, 0.489 BA), 2011 vs Twins (19 AB, 0.586 BA)

Padres v Phillies at Philladelphia

Raul Ibanez (Phillies, OF, yahoo rank 190) : 2011 vs Padres (11 AB, 0.154 BA)
Shane Victorino (Phillies, OF, yahoo rank 82) : 2011 vs Padres (15AB, 0.133 BA)

Ryan Ludwick (Padres, OF, yahoo rank 177) : career at Citizens Bank Field (42 AB, 0.143 BA), 2011 vs Phillies (16 AB, 0.125 BA)
Will Venable (Padres, OF, yahoo rank 375) : 2011 v Phillies (10 AB, 0.462 BA)

Monday, July 18, 2011

Upcoming MLB series this week - Fantasy implications

I have picked some interesting stats that could have fantasy implications this week.  Want to know how your fanatsy players matchup this week?  Send me a message and I will check up the stats for you!

Twins vs Indians (at Minnesota)

First thing to note is that Grady Sizemore (Indains, OF) is now on the DL (again).

Michael Cuddyer (Twins, OF, Yahoo rank 82)vs the Twins this year (21AB, BA 0.143) and has struggled in the last week (12AB. 0.154).  You may want to stay away from him this series.

Delmon Young (Twins, OF, Yahoo rank 842) has been on fire lately (15AB, BA 0.467 last 7 days).  But watch out because this year he has struggled against Masterson (Indians, SP) who pitches later in the series (14AB, BA 0.143)

Michael Brandtley (Indians, OF, yahoo rank 113) has struggled this year at Minnesota (8AB, BA 0.125) but has been hitting well lately (19AB, BA 0.368 last week) so keep this in mind.

Asdrubel Cabrera (Indians, SS, yahoo rank 23) has a great record this year vs Liriano (Twins, SP) who pitches later in the week (19AB, BA 0.579).

Red Sox v Orioles (at Baltimore)

You can't go wrong with most of the Red Sox players in their series against the O's.
While it is obvious that Adrain Gonzalez should be in your fantasy lineup every day here are some stats that will excite you for the sereies vs the Orioles.

Adrian Gonzalez is absolutely killing the O's this year - 32AB, BA 0.500.  At Cambden Yards he is also killing them, 13AB, 0.463 BA.  Plus he has had good records this year vs all the pitchers in this series :  Bergensen, Guthrie and Arrieta (BA at least above 400).  Should be series where A-Gon piles on the stats.

Jacoby Ellsbury also has a good record this year against the O's (35 AB, 0.457 BA) and at Cambden Yards (14 AB, 0.500 BA).

Reds v Pirates (at Pittsburgh)

Joey Votto (Reds, 1B) - Career vs Pirates (69 AB, 0.420 BA)
Drew Stubbs (Reds, OF, yahoo rank 54) vs Pirates at Pittsburgh (36 AB, 0.194)
Jay Bruce (Reds, OF, yahoo rank 39 ) vs Pirates 2011 (19AB, 0.474 BA)

Marlins v Mets (at New York)

Gaby Sanchez (Marlins, 1B, yahoo rank 86) - 2011 vs Mets (17 AB, 0.412 BA)
Omar Infante (Marlins, 2B, yahoo rank 761) - career vs Mets at Citi Field (59 AB, 0.424 BA), 2011 vs Mets at Citi Field (4AB, 0.750BA)
Hanley Ramirez (Marlins, SS, yahoo rank 88) - 2011 vs Mets (20 AB, 0.150 BA, no hits at Citi Field)
Mike Stanton (Marlins, OF, yahoo rank 70) - career vs Mets (38 AB, 0.184 BA) at Citi Field (16 AB, 0.125 BA)

Carlos Beltran (Mets, OF, yahoo rank 44) - 2011 v Marlins (13 AB, 0.231 BA)

Yankees v Rays (at Tampa)

Mark Tiexeira (Yankees, 1B, yahoo rank 43) - 2011 vs Rays (14 AB, 0.214)
Brett Gardner (Yankees, OF, yahoo rank 98) - career vs Rays (97 AB, 0.196 BA), 2011 vs Rays (14 AB, 0.357 BA)
Curtis Granderson (Yankees, OF, yahoo rank 5) - 2011 vs Rays (19 AB, 0.105 BA), 2011 at Tropicana Field (9 AB, 0.111 BA)

Ben Zobrist (Rays, utility, yahoo rank 56) - 2011 vs Yankees (16 AB, 0.375)
Evan Longoria (Rays, 1B, yahoo rank 252) - 2011 vs Yankees (20 AB, 0.252 BA)
BJ Upton (Rays, OF, yahoo rank 47) - 2011 at Tropicana Field (154 AB, 0.182 BA)

Sunday, July 17, 2011

Prominant MLB position players that could struggle on Sunday

Here are some players that are in the top 100 for Yahoo Fantasy Baseball but have struggled against today's pitchers in the past.  Chances are you may have them on your team and you may want to look for other options.

Joey Votto (Reds, 1B) v Jaime Garcia (Cardinals, SP) - 11AB, BA 0.091
Jay Bruce (Reds) v Jaime Garcia (Cardinals, SP) - 10AB, BA 0.100
Hunter Pence (Astros, OF) v Kevin Correia (Pirates, SP) - 12AB, BA 0.167
Adrew McCutcheon (Pirates) v Wandy Rodriguez (Astros, SP) - 14AB, BA 0.143
Torii Hunter (Angels, OF) v Gio Gonzalez (Athletics, SP) - 17AB, BA 0.118
Bobby Abreu (Angels, OF) v Gio Gonzalez (Athletics, SP) - 16AB, BA 0.063

Players who have lead since round 2 and won the British Open

Darren Clarke is in great position to win his first major and British Open.  Before the tournament started he fit the profile of winners since 1980 well (see my previous posts) and he has had the lead since round 2.  Since 1980 9 players have led since round 2 and gone on to win as shown below.  Could this be Clarke's year?  Would be a great story.

Shots behind/ahead Shots ahead Shots ahead
2010 Oostthuizen -2 5 4
2006 Woods -1 1 1
2005 Woods 1 4 2
2002 Ernie Els -3 1 2
2000 Woods -1 3 6
1996 Tom Lehman -2 1 6
1992 Nick Faldo -2 3 4
1986 Greg Norman -4 2 1
1981 Bill Rogers -2 1 5

Saturday, July 16, 2011

MLB Position players that could struggle on Saturday

Here are some players that are in the top 200 for Yahoo Fantasy Baseball but have struggled against today's pitchers in the past.  They have more than 10 AB v that pitcher and a BA of less than 0.200 in the last 6 years.

Want to know a matchup or more stats?  Message me for details.

Carlos Pena (Cubs, 1B) v Carlos Vasquez (Marlins, SP)
Jose Bautista (Blue Jays, OF) v CC Sabathia (Yankees, SP)
Kevin Youkilis (Red Sox, 3B) v James Shields (Rays, SP)
Carlos Quentin (White Sox, OF) v Max Scherzer (Tiges, SP)
Ryan Howard (Phillies, 1B) v Jonathan Niese (Mets, SP)
Brandon Phillips (Reds) v Chris Carpenter (Cardinals, SP)
Jay Bruce (Reds) v Chris Carpenter (Cardinals, SP)
Ian Kinsler (Ranges) v Felix Hernandez (Mariner, SP)